And a very recent post, AGI Ruin, summarising the arguments on why artificial general intelligence is so dangerous and why controlling these dangers is so very hard. . Rationality, Vernon Smith. Had I included everything I knew and shown the whole truth, even I could not have watched it. If theres one film to show Nietzsche brought back from the dead, maybe this is it. Reagans White House was better at communication than any other in the modern era partly because they did not rely on normal political staff but brought people in from Hollywood. Notes on Colin Grays Strategy and Defence Planning, following on from military innovation, The Kill Chain, nuclear (sorry for slow progress on Payne). Below is a summary of the main ideas. judge timothy kenny political affiliation. Worthlin. , Franzen. Richard Feynman was a giant of theoretical physics who famously defined science as "the belief in the ignorance of experts". , Terence Tao. The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver. E.g Around 1848 nationalism was an elite opinion held by educated liberals who thought of liberalism and nationalism as naturally, and morally, connected, while uneducated peasants were, nationalistic. A Boyd ally wrote about his time in the Pentagon dealing with the extreme nightmare of procurement. Short stories, Flannery OConnor my wife gave me these, theyre little known and absolutely brilliant, the closest to Dostoyevsky of anything in the 20th Century Ive read. E.g his few pages on maths and economics which few economists seem to know about! I advised spads and officials to read this in 2019 and ignore the media. , von Neumann, 1955. The philosophising Tolstoy fought against the picture of an infinitely complex system in which most thoughts and actions fade to zero significance quickly but a few connect to others with highly non-linear effects. (If anyone knows if his remarkable secretary, Mrs. OLeary, left any records or an oral history please leave links below.). Great DVD documentary too. Nobel-winner, Feynman sparring partner, co-founder of Santa Fe Institute, wrote a book on complex systems for the general reader. (NB. The Misbehaviour of Financial Markets, Mandelbrot. Professor Sides Dominic Cummings Nov 22, 2022 59 134 Ask Me Anything Monday 28 November, 1900-2100 Dominic Cummings Nov 21, 2022 57 310 You often read versions of those really at the edge of this research do not predict fast timetables. Rosen on military innovation, very relevant to discussions on things like drones and AI in Ukraine. Innumeracy, John Allen Paulos (1988). I like reading stuff about people where incentives and feedback work, from used car salesmen to fortune tellers. by Rumelt. Governments find it very, very hard to fund such ventures. Considered by many in Silicon Valley to be the best book on the details of management. The cynicism/realism remains shocking. In all of these struggles I tried to follow Boyds advice such as, connect yourself to sources of power, disconnect your opponent and in all of them, as the opponents OODA crumbled I observed what Boyd said would happen: it starts to feel like your opponent is working for you, the more they try, the worse it gets (e.g when Cameron called the press conference to denounce lies about the fact that Turkey was in the process of joining the EU!). Reading List Dominic Cummings Jun 26, 2022 80 This thread is only visible to paid subscribers of Dominic Cummings substack Subscribe to view Keep reading with a 7-day free trial Subscribe to Dominic Cummings substack to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives. . Expert Political Judgment, and Superforecasters, Tetlock. Makers of Modern Strategy, Paret et al. Kahneman bravely admitted hed ignored some of his own lessons in believing studies he shouldnt have believed. , Robert Caro. On War, Clausewitz. For us its often seen as high level political philosophy but it was bashed out by Hamilton et al as part of a brutal political struggle including many dirty tricks on both sides. (Some confusion about his ideas is a result of his sister who, a Nazi supporter and edited things he wrote to distort his actual views. Its crucial to remember both aspects of this genius-monster without whom probably no World War I, Lenin, Hitler etc summed up by Salisburys two comments: One misses the extraordinary penetration of the old man and he will do things of which it would be absurd to suspect any other statesman in Europe. NB. Hard question (relevant to AGI safety debates! It is by far the best insider book Ive read on modern UK politics and the only one that realistically and honestly faces a) the failures of MPs as managers and systems thinkers, and b) the failures of the civil service. Charlie Munger has written and spoken extensively about mental checklists/models he uses, not just for investing. Genres Politics Can we survive technology?, von Neumann, 1955. , Bhattacharya. On digital fabrication. The critical meta-lesson is the same for all the below: Grovess last personnel report concluded that his effectiveness is unfortunately lessened somewhat by the fact that he often irritates his associates, but he has extraordinary capacity to get things done. Then he was effectively fired. Because he looked on the whole universe and all that is in it as a riddle, as a secret which could be read by applying pure thought to certain evidence, certain mystic clues which God had laid about the world to allow a sort of philosopher's treasure hunt to the esoteric brotherhood. There is a great Commentary by Gomme and Andrewes, two of the great 20th C classical scholars. We can now test fertilised eggs for common risk factors such as mental disorders and heart attacks and. Its fascinating both for getting hard things done and how to reform science funding. He understood politics and government in a way I think almost nobody in 20th Century politics did and influenced it more than almost any elected leader. Bookmarks. His boss and predecessor was Kelly Johnson who wrote this short list of principles. Many ideas you see from others (e.g Taleb) derive from Mandelbrot. But this also means theres always billion dollar bills on the pavement sometimes even trillion dollar bills, like do vaccines much faster and smarter than usual in spring 2020, and like now with 2024 approaching. (I used this to argue for checklists and transparency over the repeated failures of social services with child abuse when in the Department for Education 2011-14. Los Alamos was crucial but it was part of a much vaster infrastructure of engineering projects, intelligence, planning and so on. Essential companion (and very much ignored by most Americans) to The Federalist Papers - the so-called Anti-Federalist Papers (AFP): http://resources.utulsa.edu/law/classes/rice/Constitutional/AntiFederalist/antifed.htm, https://history.nycourts.gov/about_period/antifederalist-papers/, Re Monnet ~ https://thecritic.co.uk/issues/october-2020/the-eu-godfathers-wall-street-roots/ and Draghi ~ https://thecritic.co.uk/issues/may-2021/the-sphinx-who-reshaped-europe/, This site requires JavaScript to run correctly. I don't like to say it in front of my wife, but I did sort of neglect her sometimes; I needed to study. Ive written blogs on some other important books: Paynes recent books on nuclear weapons. Behavioral Genetics, Plomin. The director was evacuated from the horror of Stalingrad as a child: The city was ablaze up to the top of the sky. This shows the critical meta-lesson again: those in power have no interest in high performance. If hed run the Hillary campaign in 2016, no Trump as President. If you want to follow the cutting edge of this research follow Steve Hsus blog, which you should anyway. The main biography of Buffett, , is also interesting. *Renoir La Grande Illusion; La Regle de Jeu (Renoir said of the rage about the film, shot in 1938 between Munich and war, that hed showed a society in the process of disintegration, so that they [the characters] were defeated at the onset the audience recognized this. , Hardy. Why Superforecasting is top of Dominic Cummings' reading list Perhaps hoping his colleagues will be able to see into the future, the prime minister's chief adviser has advocated a book on how to. Cummings was his most senior adviser his de facto chief of staff and the architect of the Tories' 2019 landslide victory in the general election. Classic on teaching children programming, recommended by Alan Kay and Bret Victor. The real reason is most people in politics dont want to face the big questions about what government is for and how to do it better (and especially dont want to face the quality of people). It was night, bombs were exploding, and mothers were covering their children with whatever bedding they had, and then they would lie on top of them. I started like everyone young assuming those at the top of politics must be smart, interested in policy and great at organising things. Please just ask one question as precisely as you can, it will increase the chance I answer. A 16-year-old schoolgirl, Caitlyn Scott-Lee, was found dead near Wycombe Abbey School. Sun Tzu. Her recent book, The Scout Mindset, was excellent. NB. Steve Jobs advised Obama to do the same but it didnt happen. On digital fabrication. , Gustave le Bon. If youre involved in Isaac Physics and want to discuss how it could continue please get in touch.). Retweets. ), Modern works on war / strategy (NB. What is moral behaviour is not the same question as what are the principles of high performance in politics! , Gowers. Most educated people remain unaware of how little home environment affects IQ/education nor that modern analysis of DNA has confirmed the data from decades of twin/adoption studies. He replied to Yudkowskys AGI ruin, . If we could predict events like the fall of the Berlin Wall better it would have huge value. , Polya. A good biography of Einstein by Isaacson. The Idea Factory, Gertner. Fab: From Personal Computers to Personal Fabrication, Gershenfeld (MIT). If one could observe a discussion between Bismarck and one politician from the 20th Century, he might be the most interesting choice. Will. On the 50th anniversary Munger reflected on why his partnership with Buffett had been so successful and Buffetts personality. You can learn from him about how to get very hard things done without admiring his character. A history of ARPA-IPTO and Xerox PARC: how the internet and PC revolution was created. Six months later tens of thousands died for the lack of such skills. Although Nietzsche despised nothing more than the radical left, he became extremely influential on it, perhaps because nobody else so thoroughly demolishes the foundations of liberal democracy, although, in a further twist, few of the left realise the extent to which they are influenced by him. A Cavendish Quantum Mechanics Primer, Professor Mark Warner. Dominic Cummings's Odyssean reading list might make you smarter.
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